Waltham Forest Council Election 2006 - what happened to the Conservatives?

Nationwide, the local elections of 2006 were regarded as pretty good for the Tories. They achieved 40% of the popular vote and comfortably outdid Labour and the Liberal Democrats. However, things didn't run quite so smoothly for the Tories in Waltham Forest - in fact they had a mini-catastrophe. By losing all three council seats to the Lib Dems in Hale End & Highams Park ward they fell from second to third-largest party in the borough. This was the only change for the Conservatives since the local elections of 2002:

Hale End & Highams Park........................lost 3 seats to the Liberal Democrats

The Tory vote dropped 5% in this ward, while the Lib Dem vote went up over 7%. This may have been tactical voting as Labour's share of the vote fell by nearly 6%, but it isn't really possible to know. The situation was complicated by the Greens standing and taking 3.6%, so where the votes may have moved since last time is unknowable.

The political geography of the borough is a little unusual in that the Tories are virtually unbeatable in the five northernmost wards, but apart from Hale End & Highams Park they are not in contention anywhere else. They have virtually no chance in any of the wards in the rest of the borough. Where there is any contest, it is between Labour and the Lib Dems, with the Tories basically just in the role of onlookers.

The following chart lists the wards in order of strength of the Tory vote (by percentage). It runs from the safest Tory ward to the hardest for them to win.

WARDS..........................%......(% 2002)...DIFF(+/-)...COUNCILLORS

Endlebury.....................72...........c. 67...........+5......................3
Chingford Green............70...............55.........+15......................3
Larkswood....................62...........c. 63...........+0......................3
Valley...........................61...........c. 54...........+7......................3
Hatch Lane...................58...............55...........+3......................3
Hale End & HP.............41...............46...........-5.......................0
Wood Street.................31................15..........+16.....................0
Hoe Street....................19................20..........-1........................0
Lea Bridge....................16................20..........-4........................0
Chapel End...................16................18..........-2........................0
Markhouse...................15................21..........-6........................0
Forest..........................14................11...........+3.......................0
Leytonstone.................12.................7............+5.......................0
Higham Hill..................10..............c. 10..........0........................0
William Morris..............10................15...........-5.......................0
High Street.....................8..................7...........+1.......................0
Cann Hall.......................8..............c. 5...........+3.......................0
Grove Green...................8..................8.............0.......................0
Cathall...........................7.................16..........-9........................0
Leyton...........................6.................7............-1........................0

The Tories only scored big increases in the safe ward of Chingford Green, and Wood Street. Why in those wards? If you have any ideas, please do tell. They scored increases in all five of their safest wards. Then, apart from Hale End & Highams Park, the ups and downs made no difference to any of the other results. The Conservatives are very much corralled in the north of the borough with no sign of any ability to break out in the foreseeable future.

In fact, for the forseeable future, the only way the Conservatives could control the Council would be in coalition with another party. So it was quite interesting to see a letter in the Walthamstow Guardian of 8th June 2006 (letters page not online) from Councillor G.A.Walker, Leader of the Conservative Group on the Council:

`I sent a letter to every Lib Dem councillor offering to form a joint
Lib Dem/Conservative administration which would have given them a 6:4 majority
in the cabinet and leader ship of the council ... it was not until 72 hours
before the annual council meeting that I received a formal indication from the
Lib Dems that they were declining my offer and had done a deal with the Labour
group ... We offered them the chance to jointly take control ... but they have
bottled out, again preferring to shield behind a Labour group upon whom to cast
the blame for failure.'

It is not at all surprising that the Lib Dems rejected this overture. Apart from the five northernmost wards, the Tories have little support in the borough. If the Lib Dems had put them into (shared) power, the opposition Labour Group would have taken the opportunity to `talk left' and appear as principled anti-Tories (whereas in power they implement Tory neo-liberal policies). The Lib Dems would suffer the consequences at the next election, and in all likelihood, Labour would win a majority in the borough. The Lib Dems would be set back for quite a few years.

To see just how limited the Conservatives chances are, the next table lists the Tories target wards in order from the easiest for them to win, to the hardest. The swing required here is that necessary to win the majority vote in the ward. As these are multi-seat constituencies that would not in itself guarantee winning all 3 seats in the ward (although that would usually be the case).

WARD......................CONS %.....OPPONENTS %.....SWING REQ'D

Hale End & HP..........41................Lib Dem 44..................2%
Wood Street..............31................Lab 44..........................7%
Lea Bridge.................16................Lab 56........................16%
Markhouse................15................Lab 46........................16%
Forest.......................14................Lib Dem 44................16%
Hoe Street.................19................Lab 51........................17%
High Street..................8.................Lab 40.......................17%
Leytonstone..............12................Lab 46........................18%
William Morris...........10................Lab 45........................18%
Higham Hill...............10................Lib Dem 49................20%
Grove Green...............8................Lab 47.........................20%
Cathall........................7................Lab 46.........................20%
Chapel End................16................Lib Dem 56.................21%
Cann Hall....................8................Lib Dem 50.................22%
Leyton........................6.................Lib Dem 47.................22%


To gain overall control, the Conservatives would require a swing from Labour and the Liberal Democrats of about 17%. Barring political earthquakes that isn't going to happen. So any urgings from Labour to vote for them to keep the Tories out are completely meaningless in Waltham Forest. The Conservatives can look forward to opposition in perpetuity here - unless they can persuade another party to go into coalition with them.