William Morris Ward Polling Station 4 May 2006
OVERVIEW
Parties.................Votes.......%....Councillors....%....Votes per Cllr
Labour.................57,959....33.9........26.............43.3..........2,229
Liberal Democrat..54,990....32.2........19..............31.7.........2,926
Conservative.........46,981....27.5........15..............25...........3,132
Greens..................8,094......4.7
Respect................1,775.......1
BNP........................509.....<1
UKIP.......................270.....<1
Socialist Alt.............245.....<1
Independents...........178.....<1
[Ward by ward results can be found here]
This table is best used for comparing the performance of the three main parties as they each stood 3 candidates in each of the 20 wards. The Greens support is understated here because they stood only 1 candidate in each of 18 wards. It is not possible to draw conclusions about the extent of the support of the smaller parties from this table because they stood candidates only in 2 wards (Respect, 2 candidates each in each of 2 wards); or in 1 ward (all the other parties who each stood 1 candidate). There were 2 Independent candidates in 1 ward.
One way to examine the relative support of all the parties is to divide the total number of votes per party by the number of their candidates and compare the resulting percentages. The main problem is that we don't know whether the small parties' support from only one or two constituencies would be replicated across the borough. Nevertheless, this gives us a rough and ready measure of their support.
Parties...................Votes...........Candidates....Votes per Cndte...%
Labour....................57,959................60................966................20.7
Liberal Democrat................54,990................60................916................19.6
Conservative............46,981................60................783................16.8
Greens.....................8,094................18................450..................9.6
Respect....................1,775.................4................444..................9.5
BNP..........................509...................1................509.................10.9
UKIP..........................270..................1................270...................5.8
Socialist Alt.............................245...................1.................245.................5.2
Independents.............178....................2..................89..................1.9
We can draw some important conclusions from the statistical information here. Most importantly, first-past-the-post significantly distorts electoral representation. Although the percentage of Conservative votes and councillors, and of Lib Dem votes and councillors is quite closely aligned, that of Labour is considerably skewed. Labour received 33.8% of the vote, but 43.3% of the councillors. The smaller parties are the main victims here.
The Greens received 4.7% of the vote from just under one-third as many candidates as the main parties. If they stood more candidates their share of the vote would undoubtedly increase, but under the present system they would probably still not get any councillors. What would happen if we had a much more representative system of proportional representation? If the councillors were distributed amongst the parties according to the above table (excluding the Independents who received less than 5% per candidate), the comparison would look like this:
Now: Lab - 26, Lib Dem - 19, Cons - 15, Total = 60
With PR: Lab - 12, Lib Dem - 12, Cons - 10, BNP - 7, Greens - 6,
Respect - 6, UKIP - 3, Socialist Alternative - 3, unallocated - 1, Total = 60
Of course, the real results would not be quite like this. I think it unlikely that the BNP would get much support outside the northern wards of the borough - and hopefully not much there. Also, it seems unlikely that Respect or the Socialist Alternative would do as well in the northern wards, although they might compensate for this in the rest of Waltham Forest. The main point is that much wider points of view would be represented on the Council, that are currently ignored.
The Power Inquiry recently reported on the deep alienation of the British electorate from the political system. The results in Waltham Forest clearly show how a sizeable minority of the electorate is disenfranchised by our current electoral system. In fact they are doubly disenfranchised. Not only are their views not represented in the Council (and only just barely in Parliament), but also they are largely ignored by the media who concentrate on reporting on elected politicians and ignore almost everyone else.
THE CONCLUSION IS VERY CLEAR. WE MUST HAVE ELECTORAL REFORM, AND WE NEED IT NOW - NOT IN SEVERAL YEARS TIME.
(I intend to post a ward-by-ward analysis shortly to supplement this post).
UPDATE 19/5/06 I have adjusted the figures slightly because revised voting figures have been issued for one of the (unsuccessful) Lib Dem candidates in Hoe Street ward.
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