Nationally the Liberal Democrats' performance was rather disappointing. However, in one respect at least, their performance in Waltham Forest must have been quite satisfying. They took 3 Council seats from the Conservatives, and thus became the second largest party in the borough. But they must have been disappointed with their performance against Labour. Given Labour's problems it seemed quite likely that they might take a few seats from them - in the end overall they gained one (if intervening byelections are taken into account). These were the changes affecting the Lib Dems since the 2002 local elections:
Forest..................won 2 seats from Labour (1 won at byelection)
Grove Green.........lost 1 seat to Labour
High Street...........won 2 seats from Labour
Leyton.................lost 1 seat to Labour
William Morris......won 1 seat from Labour (won at byelection)
Hale End & HP......won 3 seats from the Conservatives
The Liberal Democrats now have 19 seats, 12 short of an overall majority. So it is likely that the Council will continue to be run by a Labour-Lib Dem coalition.
The following chart lists the wards in order of strength of the Lib Dem vote (by percentage). It runs from the safest ward to the hardest for them to win.
WARDS..........................%......(% 2002)...DIFF(+/-)...COUNCILLORS
Chapel End...................56............54..............+2....................3
Cann Hall......................50............66.............-16....................3
Higham Hill...................49............48..............+1....................3
Leyton..........................47............60............-13....................2
Forest...........................44............28...........+16....................2
Hale End & HP..............44............37.............+7.....................3
High Street....................43............36.............+7.....................2
Cathall..........................41............19...........+22.....................0
William Morris..............40.............25............+15.....................1
Grove Green.................40.............38.............+2....................0
Leytonstone.................26.............34............-12....................0
Lea Bridge....................21.............23..............-2....................0
Hoe Street....................20............16..............+4....................0
Valley...........................20............12..............+8....................0
Wood Street.................19.............32............-13....................0
Markhouse...................19.............16.............+3.....................0
Chingford Green............19............20..............-1.....................0
Hatch Lane...................14............11..............+3....................0
Larkswood....................13............15..............-2....................0
Endlebury.....................12............15..............-3....................0
It is not easy to discern any clear voting pattern from the above figures. For example, in the south of the borough the Lib Dems vote fell by a considerable percentage in Cann Hall and Leyton wards; but increased sharply in Cathall. Why? Perhaps there were factors local to those wards. A bit further north the Lib Dems scored sizeable percentage increases in Forest and William Morris wards; but fell markedly in Wood Street. Voting patterns may be less clear because there is less of a clear line between the Lib Dems and Labour - both are responsible for Council decisions - but that doesn't really explain such big differences between different wards. If anyone has an explanation, I would be interested to hear it.
What is clear is the size of the Lib Dems victory in Hale End and Highams Park, winning all three seats away from the Conservatives. However, they are unlikely to win any more seats away from the Tories in future elections (as can be seen from the next chart) so the major electoral battles in the future are likely to continue to be between Labour and the Lib Dems in the southern half of the borough (unless any of the smaller parties emerge to make a real challenge).
The next chart looks at the situation in the Lib Dems' target wards (all wards where they do not hold all the council seats). The swing required here is that necessary to win the majority vote in the ward (except for Leyton, Forest, and High Street wards, where it is to win one seat in each case). As these are multi-seat constituencies that would not in itself guarantee winning all 3 seats in the ward (although that would usually be the case). These are listed from the most marginal to the hardest for the Lib Dems to win.
WARD......................LIB DEM%.....OPPONENTS %.....SWING REQ'D
Leyton............................47..............Lab 44....................<1%
Forest............................44..............Lab 36....................<1%
High Street.....................43..............Lab 40.....................2%
Cathall............................41.............Lab 46......................3%
William Morris................40.............Lab 45.......................3%
Grove Green...................40.............Lab 47.......................4%
Leytonstone....................26.............Lab 46......................11%
Wood Street....................19.............Lab 44......................13%
Markhouse......................19.............Lab 46....................14%
Hoe Street......................20..............Lab 51....................16%
Lea Bridge......................21..............Lab 56....................18%
Valley............................20..............Con 61...................21%
Hatch Lane.....................14.............Con 58...................23%
Larkswood......................13.............Con 62...................25%
Chingford Green...............19............Con 70...................26%
Endlebury.......................12...............Con 72..................31%
Since the Lib Dems would require 12 extra Council seats to have an overall majority they would require a swing from Labour in the order of 11% to achieve that. Unless there are very big political changes between now and the next election that seems unlikely. In practice, unless Labour can increase their popularity the Lib Dems will continue to be the kingmakers in the borough.
In theory they could ally themselves either with Labour or the Conservatives to form a majority administration. However, the latter option seems unlikely. It could certainly be viable for one term. But unless support for Labour declines dramatically, and Cameron achieves real changes in the Conservative Party, any such coalition would be likely to be punished at the following election. The Conservatives are really only popular in the five northernmost wards in the borough. The reaction elsewhere to the Lib Dems putting the Tories into power would probably be highly negative.
What we really need is proportional representation, of course.
Don't hold your breath waiting for that.
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